The National Football League isn’t ready to accept prediction markets, the fast-growing trading platforms where users bet on event outcomes like game results or player performance.
At a recent investor event hosted by Genius Sports, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell made clear the league’s hesitation, saying prediction markets (PMs) aren’t something the league plans to “enter into” in the near future.
Goodell’s comments highlight the league’s broader concerns about regulation, brand protection, and the integrity of the sport, even as operators such as Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, and FanDuel increasingly move into the space.
DraftKings launched a PM app in the Lone Star State last week.
‘We’re going to see how things play out’
Speaking alongside Genius Sports CEO Mark Locke, Goodell was straightforward about the league’s approach.
“On the predictive markets … for us, that’s not something we’re about to enter into,” Goodell said. “We are going to see how things play out, both from a regulatory standpoint … There are a lot of legal challenges going on right now.”
He stressed that while the NFL likes to be first in emerging markets when it’s wise, its top priority remains protecting the league’s brand and the integrity of the game. Goodell said.
“The risk to the brand is something that we take very seriously.”
That cautious tone reflects a belief within the league that PMs – which operate under federal oversight through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission rather than through state gambling regulators – pose unanswered questions about consumer protections and competitive fairness.
Legal uncertainty and integrity concerns
The regulatory landscape around PMs is unsettled. Unlike state-regulated sportsbooks, PMs can offer contracts tied to NFL outcomes nationwide, including in states where traditional sports wagering isn’t legal. That has drawn scrutiny from lawmakers, gaming tribes, and sports leagues alike.
Earlier this month, NFL executives publicly warned a congressional committee that PMs could operate outside established guardrails, potentially creating greater influence and risk than regulated sportsbooks. League EVP Jeff Miller noted that unchecked wagers, including micro-contracts tied to in-game phrases or events, could raise integrity issues.
While PM operators counter that they are regulated under federal markets law and bound by anti-manipulation rules, the debate continues over where these platforms fit within the broader sports wagering ecosystem.
Not alone, but standing apart
The NFL’s stance contrasts with some other major sports leagues. The NHL has struck partnerships with PM platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, signaling a willingness to experiment with alternative wagering products.
Even so, PMs have quickly gained traction with fans. Trading volume related to NFL events has outpaced other sports on some platforms, despite the lack of official league involvement.
For now, though, the NFL remains in a wait-and-see mode. It’s monitoring legal developments and the evolving market before deciding whether the potential benefits outweigh the risks.
As Goodell put it, the league isn’t closing the door forever, “but we’re going to let things play out” before stepping in.
