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Kalshi’s market on Texas’ Senate race was nearing $100 million in trading volume as of Nov. 3, while the state’s gubernatorial contest had drawn $21 million, according to Fortune.
The Texas contests were part of a broader surge that pushed the prediction-market platform’s midterm-related trading volume above $1.4 billion.
Texas markets favored Talarico and Abbott
Fortune reported that Kalshi traders gave Democrat James Talarico a 71% chance of defeating Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’ Senate race. In the gubernatorial contest, traders gave incumbent Republican Greg Abbott a 65% chance of winning.
Nationally, the platform’s traders gave Democrats a 93% chance of winning control of the House and a 73% chance of taking the Senate. A contract on which party would control the House had crossed $181 million in trading volume, while a separate market covering all four possible combinations of House and Senate control topped $112 million.
Recent forecasts show the limits of market odds
Fortune also highlighted recent prediction-market misses that have raised questions about forecasting reliability. The reported percentages represent traders’ assessments at that point, rather than election results.
In August, traders gave Francesca Hong roughly a 95% chance of winning Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary. David Crowley instead edged her out by less than half a percentage point.
Polymarket later deleted a celebratory post touting Hong’s odds. Kalshi’s founders defended the forecast by saying, “5% is not 0%.”
More from playtexas.com – Kalshi Launches Platinum VIP Program for High-Volume Traders
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Source: As reported by Fortune.
